EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2018 - Month 33 - Down -76%submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]
See the full blog post with all the tables here.
Month Thirty Three – Down 76%2018 Top Ten Summary for September
After a rough start to September, crypto spent the month trying in vain to claw back ground. While a few coins rebounded quite a bit from the monthly lows, most ended up finishing the month significantly down. Out of the 2018 Top Ten group, Bitcoin lost the least, down -8% in September. NEM followed it’s winning August (yes, you read that right) with the poorest performance, down -26%.
Question of the month:
Which cryptocurrency exchange won approval to create America’s first crypto bank in September?A) Binance B) Binance.us C) Kraken D) Coinbase
Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and September Winners and LosersRank of 2018 Portfolio - 50% no longer in Top Ten
A lot of shuffling in September. On the upside, Bitcoin Cash and Cardano gained one place each landing at #5 and #10 respectively. Cardano gets special mention for re-entering the Top Ten.
Heading the wrong direction were IOTA, NEM, Dash, and Stellar each falling two or three spots.
The big story though, for long time crypto watchers, was the ejection of Litecoin from the Top Ten, down five places from #7 to #12 in just one month. For some context, Litecoin’s absence from the Top Ten is a Top Ten Experiment first. It is also the first time since CoinMarketCap has tracked crypto rankings that Litecoin has not been in the Top Ten.
Drop outs: After thirty-three months of this experiment 50% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out. NEM, Litecoin, Dash, IOTA, and Stellar have been replaced by Binance Coin, Tether, BSV, LINK, and most recently, DOT.
September Winners – Although it lost -8% of its value, this month’s W goes to Bitcoin. ADA gets second place, down -15% and climbing back into the Top Ten.
September Losers – As most probably expected after an extremely out of character victory last month, NEM came back down to earth in September, bigly, down -26%. Litecoin finished right behind, down -24% and dropping out of the Top Ten.
For the overly competitive, below is a tally of the winners of the first 33 months of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment. Bitcoin still has the most monthly wins (8) and Cardano in second place with 6 monthly wins. With its poor September performance, NEM now has 7 monthly losses.
Ws and Ls - One clear winner
Every crypto has at least one monthly win and Bitcoin is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t lost a month yet since January 2018.
Overall update – BTC solidly in the lead, followed by ETH. Dash in the basement, LTC drops out of the Top Ten.Even though BTC took a bit of a detour on its way back to break-even point, it is still far ahead of the field, down -17% since January 2018. The initial investment of $100 thirty-three months ago is now worth about $83. Second place Ethereum is down -49% over the same time period.
At this point in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, Dash is at the bottom. It is currently worth $70.49, down from a January 1st, 2018 starting price of over $1,000. That’s a loss of -93%. The initial $100 invested in Dash 33 months ago is now worth $6.77.
The big story this month is LTC’s departure from the Top Ten, the first time since I started the experiment back in January 2018. Whether or not it will eventually fend off the new generation of coins remains to be seen, but it certainly is noteworthy to have one of the most well known and long standing cryptos drop out of the Top Ten. Consider pouring one out for Litecoin.
Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:The crypto market lost over $35B in September and is down -39% since January 2018. The value of the overall crypto market is near where it was in August of this year, just a few months back. As painful as the beginning of the month was, looking at a table like this helps with perspective, especially if you’re panic prone.
Bitcoin dominance:After steadily dipping for months, BitDom increased a bit in September, up to 57.5%.
For some context: since the beginning of the experiment, the range of Bitcoin dominance has been quite wide: we saw a high of 70% BitDom in September 2019 and a low of 33% BitDom in February 2018.
Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost -$50 this month. If I cashed out today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $238, down -76% from January 2018.
September broke an encouraging upward trend, but at least the portfolio is taking a break from the -80% range. Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, for some context:
33 Monthly ROIs on Top Ten since Jan 2018
The absolute bottom was -88% back in January 2019.
So the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018 are down -76%. What about the 2019 and 2020 Top Tens? Let’s take a look:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,340 ($238+ $1,538 +$1,564).
That’s up about +11% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +31% last month.
Here’s a table to help visualize:
Combined ROI on $3k over 3 years - UP +11%
That’s a +11% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years.
But surely you’d do better if you went all in on one crypto, right?
Depends on your choice. Let’s take a look:
ETH for the win
Only five cryptos have started in the Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC (unless Litecoin can make a comeback by the 1st of Jan. 2021, it’s not going to make the four year club!). Knowing what we know now, which one would have been best to go all in on?
Ethereum, by a pretty good margin: the initial $3k would be up +104%, worth $6,118 today. The worst choice of a basket to put all your eggs in at this point in the experiment is XRP, down by almost one third.
Comparison to S&P 500:I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 Index fell from an all time high in August, but is currently up +26% since January 2018.
S&P since Jan. 2018
The initial $1k investment into crypto on January 1st, 2018 would have been worth about $1260 had it been redirected to the S&P.
But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,660.
That is up +22% since January 2018, compared to a +11% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios.
That’s an 11% swing in favor of the S&P 500 and breaks a two month mini-streak of wins from the Top Ten crypto portfolios.
S&P vs. Top Ten Crypto Experiments
That’s seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. two monthly victories for crypto. The largest gap so far was a 22% difference in favor of the S&P in June.
Conclusion:September was a tough month for both traditional and crypto markets. What’s next for the rest of 2020? More volatility is no doubt to come as we enter the last quarter of a truly unpredictable and exhausting year. Buckle up.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment twice, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of two new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st, 2019 then again on January 1st, 2020.
And the Answer is…C) Kraken
According to an official announcement in September, Kraken is “the first digital asset company in U.S. history to receive a bank charter recognized under federal and state law.”
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Venezuelan Central Bank Accused Of Laundering Bitcoin Obtained With Seized Mining Rigs Venezuela’s central bank is being accused of laundering BTC and ether obtained from seized mining rigs. Recently, Purse.io’s head of support Eduardo Gomez took to Twitter to shed light on the illegal practice. Gomez said the Venezuelan government has been illegally seizing mining rigs to obtain Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, the government is caught in a situation with no clear outlet to unload the coins. Gomez continued, explaining that the central bank will be used to launder the funds.
The Congress Of The Republic Of Peru Shows Interest In Blockchain Technology On Sept. 23, Congressman Francesco Petrozzi, president of the Science, Innovation and Technology Commission in Peru, spoke with Marco Esparza Montejo, the COO of Blockchain Life Solutions, about the potential of blockchain technology and the fourth industrial revolution applied in everyday reality. Esparza proposed the creation of an equivalent Blockchain Supervision at the Congress that would trace bad practices, propose funds to develop initiatives, put them in value and produce associated regulatory frameworks, among other things. He also proposed introducing digital training at schools, which includes not only learning to program but also seeing how it impacts on life.
Central Bank Of Brazil Wants To Use Blockchain Technology Starting In 2020 On Sept 24, Cointelegraph Brasil reported that the central bank of Brazil has decided to move away from its current payment system (Ted and Doc), which it considers slow and expensive. The new blockchain-based instant payment system should be launched by November 2020. The central bank hopes to connect more than 120 regulator-registered financial institutions and assure the availability of funds to the final beneficiary in real time, 24/7.
JPMorgan Says ICE Debuts; Positions’ Shakeout Likely Tanked Bitcoin Bitcoin’s 20% drop earlier this week was likely fueled by the effect of Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s new futures contracts and an unwinding of long positions, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Though the strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou were quick to point out that the introduction of physically delivered futures was a further step to maturity for the market, they said it probably depressed prices. Numerous crypto-market watchers have cited lower-than-expected volumes for the ICE futures contract as a likely contributor to this week’s drop. Other suggestions included concern about difficulty getting U.S. approval for Bitcoin-related exchange-traded funds and pressure around technical levels.
Encrypted project calendar（September 29, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（September 30, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 01, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 02, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 03, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 04, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 05, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 06, 2019）
SPND/ Spendcoin: Spendcoin (SPND) will be online on October 6th
Encrypted project calendar（October 07, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 08, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 09, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 10, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 11, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 12, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 14, 2019）
BCH/Bitcoin Cash: The ChainPoint 19 conference will be held in Armenia from October 14th to 15th.
Encrypted project calendar（October 15, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 16, 2019）
Encrypted project calendar（October 18, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin: The SEC will give a pass on the VanEck/SolidX ETF on October 18th and make a final decision HB/HeartBout: HeartBout (HB) will officially release the Android version of the HeartBout app on October 18.
The BTC continued to shake yesterday and is still hovering around $8,200. In the past 24 hours, the net inflows of BTC funds exceeded $30 million, and the market inflows increased slightly. BTC tried again in the early morning to test the resistance of $8,400, but failed. Now it has withdrawn to the vicinity of $8,200. Looking at the 4-hour line, the rebound of BTC can weaken gradually. In the short term, it is difficult to have enough strength to break through upwards, and there may be further callbacks. The lower support level focuses on the $8,000 threshold first, and when it breaks through the support, it needs to be aware of the vicinity of $7,500. Operational aspects, back to $8400 can consider the deployment of an appropriate amount of empty orders, the spot side is not blindly operated for the time being, the heavier proposal to reduce the warehouse to less than 50% waiting for more suitable access opportunities.
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